Fletch Lives!

Ah the more things change, the more they stay the same in Leafland.

Looks like the puppetmaster (for those of you that saw the bizarre show put on by Fletcher and Peddie during the presser from the ACC, you know what I'm talking about) has decided the best course to fixing the mess he created is to go with something old. Let's hope this summer brings us something new (in the form of a hockey man that will operate without interference) and something borrowed (like a sense of decency and class from one of the other hockey orgs). Needless to say the fans are blue and looking at the dearth of prospects in the org, aside from Pogge, they will likely continue to be for some time.

Of course, Fletch's arrival and the news coming out of MLSE suggest that this is indeed the logn awaited start of the always on the horizon 'rebuilding plan'. From MLSE's lips to God's ear if it is finally true this time. I am still not convinced that any hockey guy that could actually come in and right this ship would ever actually consider it given the behavior of the MLSE board and the level of interference that they seem to have. MLSE are going to have to pay someone a dump-truck full of money, which is luckily the only thing about owning a professional sports team they seem capable of managing. We shall see...

Update on Hockey Intelligence

I am still working on my Hockey IQ stat (HIQ), but have hit a bit of a wall with regards to getting up-to-date, timely statistics. I have a few calls in, but if anyone knows of a source, other than manually copy/pasting them from NHL.com, please don't hesitate to drop me a line.

On a personal note, I am going on a road trip through the high desert country of the American southwest, and will be back on Wednesday. Obviously, no updates till then, unless I stumble upon an internet terminal and some free-time while peering into the Grand Canyon.

My quick take on the Buds prospects for the weekend:

The struggling Devils visit the ACC on Saturday. They are having trouble scoring goals, and if the Leafs can manage to put a lid on Gionta, they have a decent chance at winning this one.

On Monday, the surprising Islanders come to town. Led by a rejuvenated Yashin and a red-hot Jason Blake, this game will be a real test. Yep, the Islanders are actually playing well. Put the credit where I feel it is due, on coach Nolan. He seems to be working his magic once again. Heck, he should be a coach of the year finalist just for getting Yashin to actually start trying out there.

Have a good weekend!

Mats is Gone ... Time for Sombody to Step Up

Unless you were in a coma today (beer induced does not count), you have likely heard that our captain, Mats Sundin, is out with ligament damage ^ in his elbow. He suffered the injury on Monday during a first period collision with Ben Eager of the Flyers, but stayed around to finish the game, even though in pain.

It is expected that the big Swede will miss up to four weeks, leaving a hole so big in the Leafs lineup that it might be mistaken for Patrick Lalime's five-hole.

The reality is, there simply is no such thing as replacing everything that Mats brings to the table. Timely goals, leadership, dominating forecheck and quarterbacking the powerplay. Yeah, he's kind of important. In fact, from just after the Olympic break last season and continuing into this season, he has 44 points in just 30 games, and has at times been completely dominant.

Time to Step Up

What does all this mean? Should Leaf fans forestall their misery and jump ship, as their team sinks rudderlessly into oblivion? Well, not exactly. There is a glint of hope in all of this. There are a number of players on this Leafs squad that either have something to prove, or have shown flashes of real ability.

Antropov: For better or for worse, when Sundin returns in a month, we will have answered the age-old question: "Can Antropov actually play in the NHL?".

Up until now, that answer is a resounding NO, but in this next fortnight x 2, Antropov will be given ever chance to finally prove his many critics wrong. He has a chance, for the first time in his career, to actually lead the team. I am eagerly awaiting the game in Boston, for many reasons, but this more so than others.

Matt Stajan: In an earlier post, I mentioned that I though Stajan has really stepped it up this year. His numbers are up, and he has become the Leafs most rounded player following Sundin. He is solid in his own end, kills penalties, runs the #2 PP unit, and best of all, makes all of his linemates better. Want proof? His winger, Jeff O'Neill, is currently a +3, and Matt has probably had the primary assist on every single one of his 5 goals to-date. I can't wait to see how this kid reacts to the extra minutes and responsibility. This may be Stajans big coming out party.

Alex Steen: Off to an extremely slow start, and playing uncharacteristically lackadaisical, Alex has played better in recent games. Funny, last season I would have bet a billion dollars (thanks Eddie) that Steen would be the better all-round player between himself and Stajan. How wrong I was. Maybe this will be the kick in the pants he needs to shake the sophomore slump? Maybe he just has a case of the Mondays? (nods towards Michael 'Mike' Bolton).

Talk about an early season test! If the Leafs can remain in the hunt, and a few players can step-up, we may actually be in a better position come April, as odd as that sounds. Or they could be battling the Flyers for last place in the East...

Question; what exactly is a Philadelphia 'Flyer'? Answer in an upcoming entry...

Leafs Ranked a 'Sell'

For those not familiar with hockey coverage south of the border, John Buccigross is one of the more colourful hockey analysts for ESPN. He usually has an interesting take on things, but as per what I can only imagine are ESPN guidelines, makes a habit of drawing lame cultural comparisons between what happens on the ice and, say, Justin Timberlake... bizarre.

Anywho, he has ranked the 30 teams in the league as 'BUY' or 'SELL'. In case you missed the title (in which case I point you to a great website I found ^), John has ranked the Leafs ^ a 'SELL'.

His reason? He has a 'bad vibe' about them. A bad vibe? As in, his arthritic knee acts up when he is watching the Leafs? C'mon John, surely in that mind full of the latest Paris Hilton/Lindsey Lohan intrigues, you must have a reason... shaky goaltending, taking nights off, lack of finish, weak D... see how easy it is?

Maybe I'm wrong though. Heck, Al Strachan makes a good living penning nothing but pure fantasy for the Sun, so maybe all a well-paid sports writer needs these days is a 'funny feeling' about something.

I get funny feelings all the time... like when I look at an attractive woman wearing a Sens jersey ^... pure confusion, of the 'turn-your-head-crooked-like-a-confused-dog' type. Hey, I may yet have a future in sports broadcasting! If Buccigross can rate teams based on his 'vibe', then surely the magic eight ball ^ can be trusted, no?

Here are my Buccigross-esque BUYS, SELLS & HOLDS for the Northeast division, year-to-date (in order of distance from my kitchen, which none of these teams have ever been in):

Buffalo: They look good early, great killer instinct and comeback abilities. Injuries are starting to mount. The magic eight ball says, "Outcome Unclear". I guess it is a HOLD.

Ottawa: Weak start, Redden, Alfredsson, Fischer, Gerber, etc, etc look brutal Spezza is at his defensive worst, and Heatley is looking more and more like a one-trick pony, completely dependant on others to feed him for goals. Magic eight ball says, "Ehhh... Could be". SELL.

Montreal: Problems scoring will emerge, especially with Higgins out for 6-8 weeks, can strong goaltending keep them afloat if they are only scoring two or three goals a game? Magic eight ball says, "If you're lucky". I am lucky, and good looking (at least my Mom tells me so), so the Habs get a BUY.

Boston: Chara and Savard don't appear to be enough to push this lot over the hump, but if Boyes, Bergeron and Sturm return to form, they won't have any problems scoring. The main problem will be keeping the pucks out of their own net, due to their shallow defence corp and league-worst goaltending. Magic eight ball says, "Don't you already kind of know?". Too true my friend, too true. Bruins are a SELL.

I am a Hockey God...

Let's call a spade a spade folks, I am clearly a hockey god.

After correctly predicting the demise of Hitchcock a few weeks ago, I am now going to re-visit my pre-season predictions for the Leafs performance in October:

Prediction: A bunch of home games, but very tough opponents: 6W-7L (yes, I know that there are overtime games, etc, but count them for what they are, a win or a loss).

After tonights victory over Atlanta, the Buds are indeed 6W-4L-3OTL, or as I stated in my prediction, 6W and 7L. You can call me The Mad Hockey Kreskin from now on, thank you very much. Let me go out on a limb now, while i have the hot hand and predict that Don Cherry will be wearing a loud suit this Saturday, Brett Favre will come into Buffalo this Sunday and win, and Nik Antropov will get injured in the next 30 games. Oh, and a big ball of fire will come up tomorrow in the east. And Bobby Clarke will still be an ass. Wheh! I just blacked out there for a second, what happened?


Hey, even a stopped clock is right twice a day!

Leafs vs. Sens: Don't Believe the Hype?

I'm not really sure what to make of tonight's tilt in Kanata. We've all seen this before, where fans and media alike get all lathered up about the second game of a home and home tilt, only to see a game that is usually more disappointing than the Superbowl always is.

I'm not sure this is the case tonight... the way the game ended in Toronto, and the way the barbs have been flying in the local rags, leads me to believe we may actually see some fireworks tonight.

For starters, I think it is all but assured that McGratton and Belak will be dancing (assuming of course that Belak is actually in the lineup). As for Chris Neil, people would naturally assume that he and Tucker might have a go, but don't be surprised to see Big Hal take him on. The two have ^ a history ^, so don't be shocked if it happens tonight.

If the game is really as wild as some are predicting, expect Tucker and Fisher to tangle, with Fisher having a huge advantage, IMO.

Either way, I will be watching the game with a Sens 'fan' this evening (he is of the third variety, having at one time been a Habs fan), so it should be an interesting time!

Coaching Watch: There's Blood in the Water

Well, consider this a follow-up to the post about the Flyers/Sabres debacle from October 17, 2006.

It is clear early this 2006-2007 season that several teams widely chosen to compete are playing well below both their talent level and expectations. Two teams in the Eats that stand out for me are the Philadelphia Flyers, and the Tampa Bay Lightning. We look now at each situation.

John Tortorella - Tampa Bay Lightning:

The Lightning are playing, well, terrible. Their big stars, especially Lecavalier and St. Louis, appear disinterested, and the team is .

John Tortorella, the Tampa coach, is known for his in-your-face style and is not afraid to bench his players, including his stars. While this is a style that may work in the short-term, it will ultimately result in your players tuning you out. If the Lightning play of late last season and the start of this season is any indication, the players have long ago decided that 'Loud John' is no longer worth listening to.

As is always the case, especially with their big three locked up to such long-term contracts, the coach will get thrown under the bus. Unless the lightning turn it around in the next two weeks, Tortorella will be gone.

Ken Hitchcock - Philadelphia Flyers:

Much the same as Tortorella, coach 'Hitch' tends to tell it like it is and is known to use not-so-gentle prods to encourage his players. Consider the brewing conflict between Hitchcock and backup goaltender Robert Esche, who stated yesterday that Hitchcock had an empty head ^. This is par for the course lately for Hitchcock, and if the brutal start to the season is any indication, the players are sick of his games. Of course, one could hardly lay all of the blame at Hithcock's feet. The players are floating badly out there, showing no jump and no life. Since when does a team get taken apart 9-1 and not even try to throw a few momentum changing bodychecks, or heaven forbid, start a fight? And really, does anyone believe the pylons like Rathje and Hatcher are NHL quality defensemen anymore? Bobby Clarke can be blamed for assembling a team that appears to have been built for 2003, and the contrast between this team and the 2006 Sabres could not have been clearer.

There is plenty of blame to go around here, from floating players, to poor management to innefective coaching, but since Clarke and Flyers owner Ed Snider are tight, expect Hitchcock to get the can tied to him unless the team miraculously turns it around.

Predictions: Final NHL Standings

Well, I don't want to be the only blogger NOT posting my predictions for how the standings this season will shake out, so based on my lucky eight ball, the fact that I did not put my pants on one leg at a a time this morning, and that I'm bored, here are The Mad Bloggers predictions for the final NHL standings (I will only analyze the East, as I am not nearly as knowledgeable on the West):


Eastern Conference

1. Carolina - Still strong, still in a weak division, should feast on them all season.
2. Buffalo - Would have had them #1 overall, but I think the tough Northeast will take a bite out of the Sabres.
3. Rangers - Many people writing them off as a flash in the pan - but they should be even better with Cullen, Shanahan and another year under Lundqvist's belt.
4. Ottawa - Still strong, will finish with more points than Rangers, but get fourth due to the divisional seeding.
5. New Jersey - Lou is still the man, and a healthy Elias and a signed Gionta + Gomex means a very dangerous Devils squad. Oh, and they have some guy named Brodeur in net.
6. Tampa Bay - They will be better, as Denis is a REAL improvement in net. Watch for Richards to have an Yzermanesque season.
7. Philadelphia - This team could finish as high as third or as low as tenth, a real wild-card. Lots of great talent up front, but will Forsberg and Nitty stay healthy?
8. Toronto - This team will struggle all season, but with what should be the #1 PP in the league, and a solid showing from Raycroft, 8th is a slight possibility.


9. Montreal - Will be battling with the Leafs all season. Some nice prospects, but can Huet really be 'the man'?
10. Atlanta - Loss of Savard hurts, but I think time will show him to be a less important cog than his current contract says. Ilya could score 60, and they have improved their D.
11. Boston - Chara and Savard are not enough. No scoring after the first two lines, and a very thin D-corp.
12. Pittsburgh - Maybe the most improved team, or at least the team with the potential to be the most improved. They should be an exciting team to watch (at both ends of the rink!)
13. Florida - Acquiring a dis-interested Bertuzzi does not equate to a step-up in my view.
14. Washington - Need to get more help for Ovechkin. D is thin, but watch for LW Semin, a potential Calder candidate.
15. Islanders - Adding Tom Poti is never a good idea. Mr. Wang will start to regret his 15 year contract with DiPietro by January.

Western Conference

1. Calgary
2. San Jose
3. Nashville
4. Anaheim
5. Dallas
6. Detroit
7. Edmonton
8. Vancouver


9. Minnisota
10. Columbus
11. Colorado
12. Phoenix
13. Los Angeles
14. St. Louis
15. Chicago

Analysis of Leafs Schedule: Second Half

To recap, this is the second of two installments, containing our pre-season prognosis. The first-half can be found in our previous post.

In this second and final installment, we look at the last-half of the season.

Second Half

January
Starting the new-year with two against the Bruins, the Leafs spend most of January on the road. 7 of 12 games will be away from the ACC, including a three game swing through Florida, ending in Pittsburgh to face Crosby, Malkin and Fleury. The Leafs then stop in for a single home-game, a Saturday night tilt against the Habs, and then end the month on the front-end of the longest road trip of the season (a five gamer that sees them travel as far west as St. Louis).

Highlight Game: Saturday, January 20. The Leafs end a three game trip with a Saturday night tilt in the Igloo. We should know by now whether the Crosby/Malkin show has moved from pre-season hype into full-fledged dynamic duo.

Prediction: The Leafs will be spending more time on the road than at home, which could spell trouble for a team so apt to taking penalties (victim of the long change, etc). 6W-6L

February
More of the same for the buds, playing 7 of 12 on the road again. The month starts with the last half of the five game road trip from January, and ends with another four game trip. Two games against the Isles and others against the likes of the Pens and Blues should mean at least a couple of wins, but all those road games are going to be taking a major toll through this typically tough part of the season.

Highlight Game: Saturday, February 17 the Oil roll into town. Will they be the same team that the surprised the hockey world and made the finals, or will they fall back to one struggling to make the post-season?

Prediction: A bad month: 5W-7L, if they are lucky.

March
The final full month of the season, 14 games, eight of them at home. The Leafs longest homestand of the season is just two games, and they have three of them this month. Three sets of back-to-back games during this month, almost all of them against extremely tough competition. Three games against the Sabres, two against the Sens, one against the Habs equals some serious divisional jockeying. Almost every game played at the end of the month will be a must-win if playoff hopes are still alive. The schedule makers couldn't have done a better job!

Highlight Game: A highlight weekend, really, and one that will probably decide the season for the Buds. Back-to-back tilts against the Sabres on the weekend of the 23rd. Will Briere be challenging for the league scoring title? Will the Sabres be challenging for first overall? Or was it all a flash in the pan? IMO, the Leafs will need both these games at this point, and the Sabres will be proving all those doubters wrong as they make a solid run at first overall.

Prediction: In a bit of deja-vu from 2005-2006, the Leafs will finish strong, with Mats making a run at many, many Leafs records (most points, most goals in club history), 9W-5L.

April
Just 4 games here, with the final game of the season against the Habs. I hope that this game is a formality, and the Leafs have squeeked in with their big March push, but something deep down inside of me longs for a one-game showdown on the final night of the season.

Highlight Game: Saturday, April 7, against the Habs at home, 'nuff said.

Prediction: Big finish, 3W-1L.

So that's it. Based on my predictions, the Leafs will be 23W-19L in the second-half, for an overall record of 44W-38L for this season. The Leafs finish 8th, battling tooth and nail with the Bruins, Habs, Flyers, Thrashers, Lightning and Pens (yep, those Pens) for the last three spots. No point even watching now, is there?

Leafs Fantasy Projections

Well, given the dearth of scoring talent up front on the Leafs, there really aren't too many players to even consider drafting. I know I won't be playing the 'hometown homer' in my pools when we do our drafts over the next few days. Let's look at the possibilities, position by position:

Forwards:
With only one bonafide star player, this is going to be a short list.

• Mats Sundin, maybe the most consistent player in the NHL over the past 15 years, should be a lock once again for around 75-85 points. It looks like he will be getting more ice-time, and as usual will be the kingpin of the Leafs potent power-play. Take him in the second or third-round for almost any style of league.
  
• Darcy Tucker is definitely a late-round possibility. He blossomed on the power-play last season, and will be on the first squad again this season with Mats. 30 goals and 50-60 points is not out of the question, and making him a late-round pick could be a nice pick-up. In leagues that also reward penalty minutes, consider moving him up a round.
  
• Kyle Wellwood, the second-year player with the great hands, has been promoted to both the top-line with Sundin as well as the first PP unit. Look for a 'break-out' year for Kyle, scoring ~20 goals and topping out in the low 60 point range. Again, a decent late round pick, but in leagues that reward goals over assists, consider dropping him a round.
  

Defense:
One area that the Leafs should excel, at least from a poolies point of view, will be offense from the defense. Last season, the Leafs enjoyed the second highest scoring tandem in the league, and have only boosted these fortunes through the addition of Kubina.

• Bryan McCabe will look to build on his coming-of-age season. Benefiting from the 'New NHL' rules more than most, McCabe spent a large part of last season menacing opposing goalies with his accurate and heavy slapshot from the point. Late in the season, teams seemed to be able to get McCabe out of his comfort zone, and will continue to try to do more of the same. Expect similar numbers to last season, with the potential for a bit of a drop-off in the first half as the Leafs try to figure out a way to get him the puck with some room (something Wellwood should help do in spades). Take him as a late top-10 to top 15 d-man, slightly higher in leagues that reward PP points.
  
• Tomas Kaberle is, in my opinion, the most purely gifted defenseman on the roster. He will look to continue scoring at a pace that is now becoming the norm for him, with a ton of assists coming both on the PP and on his often spectacular break-out passes that stretch the ice to the opposing blueline. Again, take him as a late top 10 player, in the same ballpark as a Kimmo Timonen, slightly higher in leagues that reward PP points.
• Pavel Kubina is an interesting case. He is certainly a worthy top 25 d-man, but his fortunes this season all seem to weigh on his partner. Should Maurice choose to pair Kubina with his gifted fellow Czech Kaberle, he could easily put up 40+ points this season, even as the #3 d-man. He should be anchoring the #2 PP squad, which will see significantly less ice-time than the #1 squad, but if an injury arises to either of McCabe or Kaberle, he will be expected to carry the burden (he is certainly being paid well enough to do it). A later d-man pick with some upside makes him a late top 20 pick on D.
  

Goalie:

• The ordained #1 man to start the season is young Mr. Raycroft. I am a huge Raycroft fan and a huge Leafs fan, but I would only be taking Raycroft as my third goalie at this point. Nothing against him or his abilities, but he is likely to see a ton of rubber, at least in the opening weeks of the season. As a result, his GAA is unlikely to be in the top 10 in the league and looking at my predictions for the Leafs record in the first-half of the season, he is not likely to have too many wins either. There are better choices out there for your #1 or even #2 guy, but if he is still available in the later rounds, take a chance on him.
  

From a fantasy perspective, this is a pretty weak team. Maurice has to have them all pulling on the rope in the same direction, especially in the transition game, else they are really going to struggle to score goals at regular strength this season.

Analysis of Leafs Schedule: First Half

First off, the official schedule ^ is available from mapleleafs.com ^. You can even download it and add it to Microsoft Outlook, which is handy for figuring out when you will need to skip out on your kids lame school plays and, of course, your date nights with your mistress, playboy.

In this first installment, let's examine the first-half of the season.

First Half

October
The boys in blue start the season with 7 of their first 10 at home, and 8 of 13 at home for the month of October. As many expect, this opening month will give us a true barometer as to how the re-tooled defense, the weak wingers and the re-born Raycroft will perform for the balance. Also featured are two back-to-back tilts with the Senators, who for all their post-season impotence have managed to make spanking the Leafs by more than a touchdown a regular occurrence. The Leafs play 10 of these 13 games against teams who finished higher in the standings, which means that the Buds will be lucky to get away with a +500 record.

Highlight Game: Jerome Iginla comes to town with his new partner in crime, Alex Tanguay on Saturday, October 14. With the Flames being the class of the West, this game at home should be a great tilt.

Prediction: A bunch of home games, but very tough opponents: 6W-7L (yes, I know that there are overtime games, etc, but count them for what they are, a win or a loss).

November
Playing 14 games in November, the Leafs spend the majority of the time on the road (8 of the 14), including a swing through the south-east. Finally, a few 'gimme' games against teams the Leafs should be beating every night (if they have any hope of making the playoffs), but also two games vs the Sabres and one against the Devils, which have been automatic losses for the Leafs for the past 100 years.

Highlight Game: Thursday, November 9 the Leafs play in the Gawden/Fleet/TD North/Purina Dog Chow Center in Boston in what is Andrew Raycroft's homecoming of sorts. Here's hoping he can stick them with a goose-egg.

Prediction: Venturing out onto the road, with mixed results: 7W-7L.

December
13 games here, 7 of them at home. The trend of no long home-stands continues, with the longest through this part of the season being just two games. Three sets of back-to-back games during this month will lead to a team feeling like they can never build any momentum. Some winnable games in here, especially in the latter half of the month.

Highlight Game: Saturday, December 9, the Leafs play at the Joe in Detroit. Always a big tilt when these two teams meet, this game could be a watershed moment for the Leafs in determining if their rather slim playoff hopes are justified.

Prediction: The first positive month, 8W-5L.

So there you have the first 40 games of the season. According to my fearless predictions, we are looking at a record of around 21W-19L, which would look to be a bubble team at best to make the playoffs, given that the buds had no extended road trips in here, and played 21 of 40 at home. Yeesh, pretty grim stuff. One more prediction. I expect Damian Cox to write his first JFJ obituary in mid-November, telling his readers how silly JFJ was to fail to bring back Allison when it is/was clear that the Leafs lacked in scoring. *shudder*

Look for our second-half analysis tomorrow.